Kaynak: Minyanville
Kaynak: Mish's
Kaynak: Mish's
Bu ifadenin doların geleceği açısından anlamı şu olabilir:"Peki global döviz rezervlerinin ne kadarı dolar cinsinden?
IMF verilerine göre 2007 yılı sonunda resmi döviz rezervlerinin yüzde 64 kadarı dolar cinsinden tutulmakta. Bu sayı 1990'lı yıllarda yüzde 66 civarında idi. Az bir düşüş var, ama önemli boyutta sayılmaz."
"Haziran-Ağustos aylarında hava sıcaklığı 25 derecenin üzerindeydi. Eylül
ayında da sıcaklık 20-22 derece civarında. Demek ki Kasım, Aralık, Ocak
aylarında da sıcaklık düşmeyecek."
"İngiltere 19 uncu yüzyılın ikinci yarısında üzerinde güneş bakmayan imparatorluk olarak dünyanın hakimi idi. Yirminci yüzyılın başında da dünyaya İngiltere'nin hakim konumu fazla değişmedi. Demek ki 20 nci yüzyılın sonunda ve 21 inci yüzyılda da İngiltere dünyanın hakimi olmaya devam edecek"
US Dollar Long Term Chart and a Scenario for Dollar Devaluation
People have asked, "How can the dollar be devalued? After all, there is no fixed standard."
Well, the dollar can decline considerably in purchasing power of real goods, as it has been doing for many years. However, the dollar can be devalued against its only true measure as a fiat currency: itself.
A formal devaluation of the dollar would be the discontinuance and reissue of the US dollar as a 'new dollar' with some preset exchange rate.
A likely figure would be 100:1, that is, 100 old dollars for 1 new dollar, possibly to be called 'the amero' as some have suggested or simply the 'dollar' as the US dollars currently in use will be withdrawn from circulation. If this does not provide sufficient relief it might have to be repeated.
This is what happened to the Russian rouble on January 1, 1998 after a debt default. Since it is unlikely that the US default will be preceded by a hyperinflation and protracted period of instability, we think the 1000:1 ratio of reissuance used by Russia might be too severe for the dollar, most especially because of its position as the reserve currency.
However, if the new dollar is to be at least partially backed by gold at the insistence of its international trading partners, then 1000:1 seems to 'work' more effectively given the US gold reserves and projected new money supply. This might be accomplished in phases, or with a dual currency regime.
It should also be noted that devaluation alone does not fix economic problems. It is a form of debt default, more severe than mere inflation. After its reissuance in 1998, for example, the new Russian rouble quickly lost approximately 70% of its value against the dollar because the devaluation had not been accompanied by significant economic reform. It has since recovered through painful adjustment.
You should not believe that this scenario is possible for the US dollar, yet. After all, if it was generally accepted and believed that it would happen, a severe value decline would already be underway.
Fiat currencies traffic in confidence. This things tend to play out over months and years, not days, unless there is a precipitating event usually caused by exterior events. Even though there had been a Russian debt default in the 1990's, the rouble had been troubled by serious inflation for many years before that.
"Hayatta değişime ayak uyduranlar ayakta kalır, en büyükler değil!
Dinazorlar da çok büyüktü ama değişen koşullara uyum sağlayamdıklarıiçin yok oldular."
SPIEGEL: It sounds as if much of the history of money revolves around funding warfare.
Ferguson: The demands of war did indeed play a major role...
Ferguson: It's hard to imagine a financial system that would never be threatened with collapse. That's mainly because of human nature. We often make false assumptions about the future. Our brains are not exactly on a par with 21st-century computers. We're better suited to hunting wild animals in the Serengeti. Our perception is extremely selective, and our attitudes change sporadically. One minute we're greedy, the next we're afraid.
SPIEGEL: What's going to happen to the financial system? How will it change?
Ferguson: As far as I understand it, financial history is essentially the result of natural selection. The crisis is a part of this evolutionary process, and natural selection within the market is its driving force. Changing conditions may cause complex systems to collapse. Just like the dinosaurs, the major financial institutions are now also having difficulties coping with a dramatic change in their environment.
"Spiegel: What about the future of the global monetary system?
Ferguson: The fates of many of the world's economies are pegged to the development of the dollar at the present time. If the dollar loses value, which is highly likely, it will be particularly painful for countries like Japan and Germany, whose exports will become more expensive. So it should be in Germany's interest in particular that the monetary system is changed.SPIEGEL: What might such a new system look like?Ferguson: Perhaps a little like the situation in the 19th century, when there were several reserve currencies: sterling, the US dollar, the German mark, and the French franc. As such, the dollar's dominance could well diminish
in favor of the euro, the Japanese yen, or the Chinese currency; the yuan.
The 19th century is also notable because most of the world was on a gold standard, a point that, somehow, in Mr. Ferguson's view, was not germane to this part of the discussion.It's amazing how so many economists, journalists, finance-types, etc. just dismiss the notion of sound money out of hand and pretend as though, since the beginning of time, we've always had fiat money when, in fact, fiat money is the exception and not the rule."Doğrusu aynı paragraftaki 19 uncu yüzyılda birddn fazla rezerv para
bulunduğu benzetmesinin tanımına benim de itirazım var. Zira 19 uncu
yüzyılda altın standardı uygulanırken "birden fazla rezerv para" yoktu,
bilakis tek para vardı, o da altın idi! Altın standardını
uygulayan ülkelerin paraların üzerinde farklı yazılar, farklı portreler bulunsa
da bulnlar farklı para birimi değil, aynı para biriminin (altının) farklı
ağırlıktaki kupürleri gibiydi! Zira bunların nispi değerleri imajlarına değil,
ağrılıklarına göre belirleniyordu! O nedenle, bu satırların yazarının da
savunduğu tek para kavramı ütopik değil, sadece eskiye (öze) dönüş
anlamını taşıyacaktır.
"It’s all part of China’s aim to make the yuan eventually freely convertible, and one day, a major global currency along with the dollar, euro and yen."
Kaynak: EastAsiaForum
Disneyland eğlence merkezlerini çok kişi bilir. Disneyland'daki oyun alanlarında kullanmak üzere basılmış, üzerinde Mickey Mouse ve arkadaşlarının renkli resimleri bulunan yukarıdaki gibi eğlence paraları vardır. Disney doları da aynen birçok Arap ülkesinin ve Çin'in para birimi gibi Amerikan dolarına "peg"lenmiştir. Disneyland'a girerken Amerikan doları verip üzerinde aynı rakam bulunan başka bir kağıt Disney Doları alırsınız ve oradaki harcamalarınızı bu dolarlarla yaparsınız. Disney dolarının üzerinde (aynen dolar gibi diğer itibari paralarda olduğu gibi) yetkili kişinin imzası vardır. Disneydeki yetkili imza da Scrooge McDuck şeklinde. Bu paralar her yıl yenilenir. O nedenle koleksiyoncuları vardır. Disney dolarları hakkında internette ayrıntılı bilgiler veren web siteleri de vardır. Hatta İnternetten de o paraları satın alma imkanı vardır. Genelde Disney dolarlarının yenileri "nominal değeri" üzerinden satılsa da eski ve nadir olanlarının değeri ABD dolarının çok üzerine çıkabilmektedir."... The U.S. dollar is rapidly transforming into a Mickey Mouse currency. This has led to a rising call for the creation of an alternative to the dollar in the form of a new world currency. It would be an enormous mistake to discount these calls as a sideshow. The odds of a world currency emerging have never been
higher."These calls are worth paying attention to for a number of reasons. The arguments for a world currency are much better than you might think. An alternative to the dollar clearly has a promising market that can develop even if it is opposed by the U.S. And the idea of a world currency is most attractive to those who devoutly believe in multilateral institutions and the Canon of Lord Keynes -- beliefs that are hardly in short supply in Barack Obama’s White House.
Olay budur!"IMF Currency
The IMF issues something known as Special Drawing Rights. These are analogous to a currency and were originally intended to replace gold as an international unit of account. The SDR market, limited until now, could easily be expanded, especially if a number of countries band together and announce that they would hold a large fraction of their reserves in the IMF currency.
If such a move were to gather steam, Keynesians would have yet another reason to celebrate the resurgence of their ideas. When the Bretton Woods system was set up, tying world currencies to the dollar, John Maynard Keynes proposed that the world establish an international currency unit that he called the bancor. A key attraction of the bancor was that it was to relax the pressure on distressed countries to run budget surpluses during recessions in order to
ease the fears of antsy investors.
Keynesian White House
Pressures for such policies persist to this day and likely have a number of sympathetic ears in the Obama White House. Paul Volcker has expressed support for the idea and can’t possibly be alone in that view. This is, after all, the administration that put all of its cards on the largest Keynesian stimulus package in U.S. history. Such devout faith in Keynes seems incompatible with vehement opposition to adopting the bancor.Given these forces, it seems likely that a world currency will emerge sooner rather than later. Here’s how it might happen:
Countries such as China and Russia will seek to expand the market for the world currency, perhaps by divorcing themselves from the dollar and investing heavily in bancors. After the developing world follows suit, nations will begin to peg their currencies to the bancor. Eventually, even the U.S. may well join in.
If that comes to pass, our currency transactions will be analogous to what happens today at Disney World. Only this time, the U.S. dollar will truly be the funny money."
Kaynak: Paper economy
"...Our budget deficit, as well as the Federal Reserve's ballooning lending
programs and other financial obligations, will accelerate a process already well
underway -- a changing role for the U.S. dollar in the global economy.
The domino effect is straightforward: Higher deficits spark market concerns
over future inflation; concerns of inflation contribute to a weaker dollar; and
both come together to undermine the greenback's role as a reliable store of
value around the world..."
Yeni sistemin kurulma çalışmaları halihazırda başladı diyor Stiglitz. Kendisi de bu çalışmaların göbeğinde netekim.
"Discussions on the design of the new system are already underway. The United Nations' Commission of Experts on Reforms of the International Monetary and Financial System -- a body I chaired and which included economists, former and
current government officials, financial sector participants, central bankers, and business leaders from Asia, Europe, the United States, Africa, and Latin America -- has argued that a new global reserve currency system may be the most important reform to ensure the long-term health of the world's economy; it also suggested how to design an orderly transition from the dollar-based system.In its interim report in June, the commission described a number of alternatives. Some involve building on the International Monetary Fund's "special drawing rights," or SDRs -- a kind of "IMF money" -- but making the issuance of this global reserve money annual and more predictable. (Currently, issuances of SDRs are small and episodic.) Other proposed reforms are more complex and ambitious, such as issuing new global reserves in ways and amounts that could be used to stabilize the world's economy or to invest in "global public goods," such as helping developing nations reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The United States has resisted these changes, but they will come regardless, and it's better for us to participate in the construction of a new system than have it happen without us. The United States has seen great advantages with the dollar as the world's reserve currency of choice, particularly the ability to borrow at low interest rates seemingly without limit. But we haven't seen the costs as clearly: the inevitable trade deficits, the instability, the weaker global economy. The benefits to us are likely to shrink, and rapidly so, as countries shift their holdings away from the dollar.
It is happening already, and the process is likely to accelerate. Chinese authorities, for example, have openly expressed concerns about the value of the country's vast dollar reserves. Not surprisingly, China and other nations holding lots of U.S. debt support efforts to build a new system.
America should show leadership in helping shape this new structure and managing the transition, rather than burying its head in the sand. We may have preferred to keep the old system, in which the dollar reigned supreme, but that's no longer an option."
Biraz uzun ama tamamını aldım yazının son kısmının. Koyu ifadeler bana ait. Yazı nasıl bitiyor? "eski sistemin devamını tercih edebilirdik. Ama artık bu bir alternatif değil"
Hala dolara imana devam edenlere İngilizce ifade etkili olur belki diye ümit ederek!
Amerikan hegemonyasını dönemlendirmesi enteresan geldi. Sadece Berlin duvarının yıkılması ile Lehman'ın batışı arasındaki dönemi almış. Bitiş tarihi OK ama bence başlangıç tarihi olarak Bretton Woods alınmalı. Herhalde "ABD'nin köpeksiz köyde değneksiz dolaşabildiği dönem anlamında kullanmış. Ama her şeye rağmen dolara hala iman edenlerin bolluğu dikkate alındığında o dönemin Lehman'la bittiğini söylemek de zor!The Fed’s record on its economic forecasts isn’t enough to reassure investors
and, as a result, the U.S. currency may suffer, he said.
Dollar ‘Weakness’
“Whether or not they’re able to do it, the uncertainty today about whether they can do it can contribute to the weakness of the dollar,” Stiglitz said. “That’s one of the reasons there is increasing interest around the world in discussing alternatives to the dollar system.”Stiglitz, who is a member of a United Nations commission that will study the global financial system and currency regimes, said “the logic is compelling” for a new global currency.
The current system creates instability, weakens global confidence, and is fundamentally unfair to developing countries that are in essence lending the U.S. trillions of dollars and bearing the risk, he said.
“In most quarters, there is a feeling we should move away from the dollar system. The question is do we do it in an orderly way, or a chaotic way,” Stiglitz said. “The size of the deficit and the size of the balance sheet of the Fed have just increased the anxiety and the desire that something be done.”
While some think it would hurt the U.S. to no longer be able to borrow cheaply in dollars, “that era is over,” he said. “We’re moving to a more multi-polar world.”
Between the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of Lehman Brothers was “the short period of American triumphalism, where we dominated the global scene. That period is over,” Stiglitz said.
"Some analysts say gold may be benefiting not just from concern about the
dollar's outlook but also from investor jitters about the future value of all
paper currencies."
"So, why a big gold rally now, after the metal's price has mostly treaded
water since mid-August?Matt Zeman, a metals trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago, says one story making the rounds is that gold buyers are expecting a big downdraft in the dollar soon, which conceivably could happen if faith in an economic recovery evaporates.
"There are a lot of big bets being made on the dollar getting weaker," Zeman said. Gold is the dollar's archrival, competing
against the greenback as a store of value."Fakat en çok hoşuma giden cümle şu:
""It could be less about the dollar than that investors are fed up with all currencies," said Alan Ruskin, foreign-exchange strategist at RBS Securities in Stamford, Conn."Eğer tüm (fiat, kağıt) paralardan bıkmışlarsa kolayı var, bütün değişik renkli kağıt parçalarını bırakıp tek paraya geçmek!
“There’s a much better chance of achieving a stable pattern of exchange rates in a multilaterally-agreed framework for exchange-rate management,” Heiner Flassbeck, co-author of the report and a UNCTAD director, said in an interview from Geneva. “An initiative equivalent to Bretton Woods or the European Monetary System is needed.”
Martin Hennecke, a financial advisor with the Hong Kong-based Tyche Group Ltd., said that could be appealing to regional central banks unnerved after watching the global financial system teeter on verge of implosion last year.
"Central banks are increasingly aware of the importance of having gold reserves at time of financial crisis and having it easily available at their own disposal," he said.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqFpl31UwPI&feature=player_embedded
Çin'in TRT'sinde yayınlanan yukarıdaki TV haberinde, yarım, 1, 2 ve 5 kiloluk külçeler halinde halka gümüş satışına başlandığı bildiriliyor!
Haberi duyuran spiker, mevcut altın-gümüş paritesinin 1:70 olması nedeniyle "gümüşün ucuz olduğunu" da vurguluyor!
(Teşekkürler prudentinvestor)
Kaynak: CFR
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