17 Haziran 2009 Çarşamba

Rubini'nin sitesinden Doların geleceğine ipuçları

Henüz fazla kişinin dikkatini çekmese de, popüler medyada "krizi tahmin eden kahin" diye lanse edilen Nuri El Rubini'nin son dönemde söylediklerinin büyük kısmı Doların rezerv niteliği üzerine. Bugün söylenenleri fazla dikkate almayan popüler medya yarın muhtemelen "Rubini doların biteceğini de öngörmüştü" diyecek...


Long-term Outlook for USD as Reserve Currency: Waning Eminence?
Recent global financial instability and the spike in US debt has prompted holders of the world's largest USD reserves to reconsider the wisdom of adhering to the US dollar as the dominant reserve currency. Were the USD to weaken, it would feed into foreign investors' aversion to purchase long-term US securities unless yields rose. Is the dollar zone crumbling? Will there be sufficient foreign demand for US long-term securities to "finance" the mammoth US trade deficit if and when risk aversion subsides?
Dollar's future among top USD holders (in decreasing order of USD reserve size)
China: China has been clamoring for a switch to a new reserve currency. China is back to buying long-term Treasuries at a slower pace than in early 2008 and selling T-Bills
Japan: The opposition party, likely to win this year's election, vowed to shun US debt
Caribbean banking centers: A tax shelter for many of the world's hedge funds, the Caribbean is unlikely to add more US debt to its holdings as hedge funds struggle with wealth destruction due to the global financial crisis
Oil Exporters: The dollar peg is growing increasingly untenable as it contributes to financial instability and inflation in the GCC. The political will to de-peg is lacking though and higher oil prices could revive petrodollar flows
Russia: Russia has joined China's bandwagon for a new reserve currency. Russia pledged to buy $30bn of SDR-denominated IMF bonds and reduce the share of dollar-denominated assets in its reserves
Brazil: BCB returned to intervene in the spot market in May, buying USD
United Kingdom: British demand for US debt is actually just a proxy for Middle Eastern and Chinese demand. If oil revenues continue falling, UK demand for US debt is unlikely to rise
Global Outlook
In sum, the dollar's future as the world's dominant reserve currency looks bleak. Reserve accumulation looks unlikely to resume on an aggregate EM basis in 2009 (Merrill Lynch). In the longer-term, the dollar's strength will largely lie in how the US will be able to unwind both previous spending commitments and current crisis-induced bailouts without having to resort to inflation (Merrill Lynch). Euro could overtake dollar as early as 2015 (Chinn/Frankel)
Global TrendFor now, however, it seems emerging markets have reverted to their old habit of accumulating reserves to dampen currency appreciation. Nonetheless, known dollar reserves have continued to trend down since 2001. In 2008, ostensible reserve "diversification" away from USD was mostly due to rebalancing after valuation changes (ECB). A decrease in the flow of USD vs non-USD into reserves does not necessarily reflect diversification from USD. Central banks tend to 'buy low and sell high' to preserve benchmark targets for currency composition (MS). Reserve diversification has been more intense in industrialized countries than in emerging markets (SG).
Jun 16, 2009

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