17 Eylül 2009 Perşembe

Geleceğin parasal sistemi nasıl olacak?

Alman Spiegel dergisi tarihçi (genelde söylediklerini beğendiğim) Niall Ferguson ile bir röportaj yapmış. Niall Ferguson röportajının başlığı "yeni bankalara ihtyacımız var" şeklinde atılmış.

Enteresan ifadeler var. Mesela;


SPIEGEL: It sounds as if much of the history of money revolves around funding warfare.
Ferguson: The demands of war did indeed play a major role...


  • Sizin de aklınıza Vietnam'dan sonra BW sisteminin tek taraflı iptali, şimdi de Irak ve Afganistan maliyetleri gelmedi mi?


Ferguson: It's hard to imagine a financial system that would never be threatened with collapse. That's mainly because of human nature. We often make false assumptions about the future. Our brains are not exactly on a par with 21st-century computers. We're better suited to hunting wild animals in the Serengeti. Our perception is extremely selective, and our attitudes change sporadically. One minute we're greedy, the next we're afraid.



SPIEGEL: What's going to happen to the financial system? How will it change?
Ferguson: As far as I understand it, financial history is essentially the result of natural selection. The crisis is a part of this evolutionary process, and natural selection within the market is its driving force. Changing conditions may cause complex systems to collapse. Just like the dinosaurs, the major financial institutions are now also having difficulties coping with a dramatic change in their environment.

Ancak , röportajda sağlam paraya (=altına) vurgunun yeterince sağlam yapılmaması bir altın sitesinde -doğal olarak- eleştirilmiş.


"Spiegel: What about the future of the global monetary system?

Ferguson: The fates of many of the world's economies are pegged to the development of the dollar at the present time. If the dollar loses value, which is highly likely, it will be particularly painful for countries like Japan and Germany, whose exports will become more expensive. So it should be in Germany's interest in particular that the monetary system is changed.SPIEGEL: What might such a new system look like?

Ferguson: Perhaps a little like the situation in the 19th century, when there were several reserve currencies: sterling, the US dollar, the German mark, and the French franc. As such, the dollar's dominance could well diminish
in favor of the euro, the Japanese yen, or the Chinese currency; the yuan.

The 19th century is also notable because most of the world was on a
gold standard, a point that, somehow, in Mr. Ferguson's view, was not germane to this part of the discussion.It's amazing how so many economists, journalists, finance-types, etc. just dismiss the notion of sound money out of hand and pretend as though, since the beginning of time, we've always had fiat money when, in fact, fiat money is the exception and not the rule."

Doğrusu aynı paragraftaki 19 uncu yüzyılda birddn fazla rezerv para
bulunduğu benzetmesinin tanımına benim de itirazım var. Zira 19 uncu
yüzyılda altın standardı uygulanırken "birden fazla rezerv para" yoktu,
bilakis tek para vardı, o da altın idi! Altın standardını
uygulayan ülkelerin paraların üzerinde farklı yazılar, farklı portreler bulunsa
da bulnlar farklı para birimi değil, aynı para biriminin (altının) farklı
ağırlıktaki kupürleri gibiydi! Zira bunların nispi değerleri imajlarına değil,
ağrılıklarına göre belirleniyordu! O nedenle, bu satırların yazarının da
savunduğu tek para kavramı ütopik değil, sadece eskiye (öze) dönüş
anlamını taşıyacaktır.



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