"...Our budget deficit, as well as the Federal Reserve's ballooning lending
programs and other financial obligations, will accelerate a process already well
underway -- a changing role for the U.S. dollar in the global economy.
The domino effect is straightforward: Higher deficits spark market concerns
over future inflation; concerns of inflation contribute to a weaker dollar; and
both come together to undermine the greenback's role as a reliable store of
value around the world..."
Bu kadar basit işte. Bu durumu herkes niye göremiyor ki? İzleyen paragraflarda güzel cümleler var. Mesela "bugünlerde dolar tutmak, getirisi olmayan bir risk almak diyor Stiglitz.
"In addition, international markets understand that the United States may face
strong incentives to reduce the real value of its debts through inflation, which
makes each dollar owed worth less. If market players are worried about inflation
(or even if they are worried that others might be worried) that is bad news for
the dollar. Holding dollars today represents risk without reward: The returns to
U.S. Treasury bills are near zero, and even those most confident in the Federal
Reserve must acknowledge the chance that things will not go smoothly."
Devamında da, hoşunuza gitsin ya da gitmesin, bu çöküşün ardından yeni ve daha istikrarlı bir global rezerv sistemi ortaya çıkacak diyor. Bundan ABD dahil bütün dünya yarar sağlayacak diyor.
"Like it or not, out of the ashes of this debacle a new and more stable global reserve system is likely to emerge, and for the world as a whole, as well as for the United States, this would be a good thing. It would lead to a more stable worldwide financial system and stronger global economic growth. The
current system entails developing countries putting aside hundreds of billions of dollars a year -- only weakening global demand and contributing to our economic difficulties. Also, there is something a little unseemly about poor countries lending the United States trillions of dollars, now at an interest rate of close to zero."
Yeni sistemin kurulma çalışmaları halihazırda başladı diyor Stiglitz. Kendisi de bu çalışmaların göbeğinde netekim.
"Discussions on the design of the new system are already underway. The United Nations' Commission of Experts on Reforms of the International Monetary and Financial System -- a body I chaired and which included economists, former and
current government officials, financial sector participants, central bankers, and business leaders from Asia, Europe, the United States, Africa, and Latin America -- has argued that a new global reserve currency system may be the most important reform to ensure the long-term health of the world's economy; it also suggested how to design an orderly transition from the dollar-based system.In its interim report in June, the commission described a number of alternatives. Some involve building on the International Monetary Fund's "special drawing rights," or SDRs -- a kind of "IMF money" -- but making the issuance of this global reserve money annual and more predictable. (Currently, issuances of SDRs are small and episodic.) Other proposed reforms are more complex and ambitious, such as issuing new global reserves in ways and amounts that could be used to stabilize the world's economy or to invest in "global public goods," such as helping developing nations reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The United States has resisted these changes, but they will come regardless, and it's better for us to participate in the construction of a new system than have it happen without us. The United States has seen great advantages with the dollar as the world's reserve currency of choice, particularly the ability to borrow at low interest rates seemingly without limit. But we haven't seen the costs as clearly: the inevitable trade deficits, the instability, the weaker global economy. The benefits to us are likely to shrink, and rapidly so, as countries shift their holdings away from the dollar.
It is happening already, and the process is likely to accelerate. Chinese authorities, for example, have openly expressed concerns about the value of the country's vast dollar reserves. Not surprisingly, China and other nations holding lots of U.S. debt support efforts to build a new system.
America should show leadership in helping shape this new structure and managing the transition, rather than burying its head in the sand. We may have preferred to keep the old system, in which the dollar reigned supreme, but that's no longer an option."
Biraz uzun ama tamamını aldım yazının son kısmının. Koyu ifadeler bana ait. Yazı nasıl bitiyor? "eski sistemin devamını tercih edebilirdik. Ama artık bu bir alternatif değil"
Hala dolara imana devam edenlere İngilizce ifade etkili olur belki diye ümit ederek!
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