Dolar kötü, Euro daha da kötü

Malum, 1-2 günden beri EURUSD paritesi EUR lehine döndü. Amerikalı bi spekülasyon danışmanı aşağıdaki yorumu geçivermiş. Mealen, tamam ABD'nin durumu kötü ama Avrupa daha beter diyor. Dayanakları enteresan:

1- Avrupalılar sosyal politikalara alışık, sosyal kesintiler halkı kızdırıyor. ABD halkı ise kızgın değil (zaten sosyal devletin ne olduğunu bilmedikleri için mi?)

2- ABD'de 50 eyalet bi kaç yıl sonra da 50 eyalet olarak kalır ama Avrupada birileri ayrılmayı tartışıyor, AB'nin bi kaç sene sonra hala bu üyelerle devam edip edemeyeceği belli değil.

3- "Sonraki nesil, doların da kendinden önceki "itibari para"ların gittiği yere (=tarihin çöplüğü?)gittiğini görebilir. Onun yerine ne geçecek? Bilemem. Fakat mevcut ortamda sisteme gelen şoklar sonuçta doların lehinedir... En azından şimdilik, çünkü dolar istikrar tarafından destekleniyor. İstikrarsız zamanlarda, en yüksek primi istikrar sağlar."


http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/dollar-bad-euro-worse/

Dollar Bad, Euro Worse
Jul 20th, 2009 By Bill Jenkins Category: Currencies, Featured

I am very confident in the fall of the euro, despite the obvious and fatal problems with the dollar. Remember that currencies, because they are fiat by nature, are political things. While it is the fundamentals that drive them, one of the overarching problems in our market is the absence of reliable fundamental data. It is hard to deny the fact that governments manipulate what is released.

But some things are for sure and provide “reasonable markers” to see what a currency is doing. One of my “favorites,” although I hate to call it that, is the “civil unrest factor.”
Across the Eurozone riots and outbreaks of violence have been touched off by escalating economic problems and disagreements between members and neighbors. People involved in civil unrest are a multifold problem. First, they have too much time on their hands because they are not working. Jobless citizens, especially in a heavily socialist culture, are a continual drag on the system. Second, it costs money to keep repressing social upheaval — presenting another drag on the system. Additionally, the passions and fears of men being what they are, such activities tend to draw in more normally productive folks as the snowball gains speed and volume.

Here in the United States, we are not facing such difficulties (yet). This means a more reasonable system of work and distribution of goods and labor. All in all, this is good for a culture, the body politic and the economy. As a result, it also breeds greater confidence in the currency. And when all is said and done, investment money will go where there is a reasonable likelihood of return, even if the return may be lower.

Specifically, there are several exotic currencies that have offered high rates of return for speculative investors and traders, like the Brazilian real and the Indian rupee, just to name two. But it is difficult to place large sums of money there simply for the sake of the wild swings in value. A high interest rate is no good if the principle of the investment is destroyed by currency depreciation.

This is what has been good up to this point in the recession/depression for the U.S. dollar. And if this continues to unfold over the next year or two in similar fashion, this would still produce U.S. dollar strength compared to the euro simply by the “fear factor.”

Additionally, as I have tried to show, the situation in Europe is actually more severe than in the United States. I believe in the end that will make them copy, at least percentage wise, the same devaluing practices that have happened here. Should that occur, it would once again be advantage-USD.

If, in addition to those previous considerations, one or more of the countries leaves the Eurozone, I think the fear and disturbance that would produce again favors the U.S. dollar.
Longer term, I have to wonder if the euro has what it takes to survive this crisis. I have no doubt that the United States will emerge out the other side with all 50 states still members of the Union. I don’t know that such can be said for the European Union.

At the end of the Mel Gibson movie, The Patriot, there is a shot of Lord Cornwallis overlooking the field of battle as the colonists finish the rout of the British at Yorktown. He says, “How could it have come to this? Everything will change. Everything HAS changed.”

When I look at the dollar, I feel the same way. What we have done may be past the point of no return, the point of repair or recovery. The next generation may well find that the U.S. dollar has gone the way of all fiat currencies before her. What will replace it? I can’t say. But in the present environment, more shocks to the system will ultimately favor the dollar… at least for the time being, because it is supported by stability. And in unstable times — stability draws the highest premium.